Why Donald Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in the Middle East Yet Faces Challenges Regarding Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict

Accounts of an upcoming US-Russia presidential meeting have been overstated, apparently.

Only a few days after Donald Trump announced he intended to confer with Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.

A initial get-together by the both countries' top diplomats has been called off, as well.

"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," Donald Trump told reporters at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I will observe what happens."

• Trump says he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after plan for negotiations with Putin postponed
• Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky departs Washington empty-handed

The frequently changing summit is another twist in Trump's attempts to broker an conclusion to war in the Eastern European nation – a subject of increased attention for the US president after he arranged a truce and hostage release deal in Gaza.

During a speech in the North African country last week to celebrate that truce deal, Trump addressed Steve Witkoff, with a new request.

"It is essential to get Russia resolved," he declared.

Nonetheless, the conditions that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough possible for the negotiation team may be challenging to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for almost several years.

Less Leverage

Per the lead negotiator, the key to unlocking a agreement was the Israeli government's decision to attack Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a move that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but provided Trump leverage to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.

The US president gained from a long record of siding with the Israeli state since his first term, encompassing his decision to move the US embassy to the contested city, to change America's position on the legality of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, in recent times, his backing for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.

The American leader, actually, is more popular among Israelis than Netanyahu – a situation that provided him with unique influence over the nation's head.

Combine Trump's political and economic ties to key Arab players in the region, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to force an agreement.

Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, the president has much less influence. In recent months, he has vacillated between efforts to pressure Putin and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.

The US leader has warned to enact new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to supply Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that doing so could disrupt the world's financial stability and intensify the conflict.

At the same time, the president has criticized openly Zelensky, temporarily cutting off information exchange with the country and suspending weapon deliveries to the nation - only to then back off in the wake of worried European partners who caution a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the whole area.

The president loves to tout his skill to meet and negotiate deals, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders haven't seemed to move the hostilities any nearer a resolution.

The Russian president may in fact be exploiting the US leader's wish for a settlement – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a means of manipulating him.

In July, Russia's leader consented to a high-level meeting in the US state just as it appeared likely that the president would sign off on legislative penalties supported by Senate Republicans. That legislation was subsequently delayed.

Last week, as news emerged that the US administration was considering seriously sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the president of Russia called Trump who then promoted the possible summit in Budapest.

The next day, the president hosted Zelensky at the White House, but departed without agreements after a allegedly strained discussion.

The US leader maintained that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.

"As you are aware, I've been played all my life by the best of them, and I came out really well," he said.

However the president of Ukraine later commented on the timeline of developments.

"Once the matter of advanced weaponry became a little further away for Ukraine – for Ukraine – Russia almost automatically became less engaged in diplomacy," he stated.

Thus, in a short period, Trump has bounced from considering the idea of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to organizing a Budapest summit with Putin and confidentially urging the Ukrainian president to surrender the entire Donbas region – including land Russian forces has been unable to conquer.

He has finally settled on advocating a ceasefire along current battle lines – something the Russian government has refused to accept.

During his election campaign previously, Trump promised that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a matter of hours. He has subsequently abandoned that commitment, saying that ending the war is turning out harder than he expected.

It has been a rare acknowledgement of the limits of his authority – and the difficulty of establishing a framework for peace when both parties wants, or is able to, cease hostilities.